bitcoin ·
Crypto exchange sees 800% USDT jump as Brazilian companies hedge election risk
Corporate accounts constituted 78% of the trading volume on Mercado Bitcoin during election day, as entities sought to hedge currency risk while traditional markets were closed.
2 outlets · CoinDesk · crypto.news
On Mercado Bitcoin, the volume for USDT increased by nearly 800%, and Bitcoin volume surged by 865% compared to the preceding Sunday.
The Ibovespa index dropped 14% on Monday, marking its worst day since 2020, following the outcome where incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro, who prediction markets had priced as roughly an 80% favorite.
Market analyst Pedro Fontes of Mercado Bitcoin noted in an analysis shared with CoinDesk, “For investors, this reinforces the logic of not relying only on the real.” He added that in a scenario of higher exchange rate pressure, stablecoins, like USDT and USDC, provide a simple method to dollarize assets at any time, even from small amounts.
The surge in activity was not confined to Mercado Bitcoin. Data from Biscoint, tracking 10 venues including Binance and MB, showed USDT turnover against the real rose 150% from the prior Sunday, while USDC volume jumped 318%.
By Monday, the combined turnover for USDT and USDC reached 1.84 billion reais, or $350 million, which is 65% higher than the previous week, and Bitcoin trading rose over ninefold to 1,336 BTC.
On Binance, Bitcoin turnover versus the real increased by 370%, yet the global BTC/USDT pair saw a 25% decline. Bitcoin gained 9.4% against the real while falling 0.2% against USDT, reflecting a repricing of Brazil’s currency as participants reacted to the election.
The expectation of a Bolsonaro victory was visible in prediction markets; Kalshi assigned him an 84% chance of winning in an October 24 preview, despite its own article noting polling showed a very close contest.
This rapid adoption of stablecoins by institutional players underscores a broader trend where participants are seeking mechanisms to insulate capital from significant domestic macroeconomic uncertainty driven by political outcomes.
Why it matters
This event highlights how institutional capital is using decentralized finance tools like stablecoins to hedge against geopolitical and sovereign risk in emerging markets. The flight to dollarized assets underscores growing investor concern over fiscal stability and currency volatility in Brazil.
